Forecast Face-off

HydroForecast Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Observed and Forecasted Inflows at Wilder Dam

Evaluation report ↗

Day 1

Each forecast's number for the day you're scheduling — click one to load it.

1,000 (min flow)10,000 = turbine max · above that spills
Day-ahead price–
Your bid–
Current and forecasted reservoir elevation
380.5
379.5
optimal elevation
380.00
Green band = FERC license  ·  Teal line = pond now Colored ticks = where each forecast lands you tomorrow, in feet
Real Wilder inflow & four real day-ahead forecasts (PNNL / Great River Hydro evaluation, Jan 2024). Pond physics from GRH elevation–volume tables. Prices: ISO-NE Vermont-zone day-ahead LMPs, Jan 1–5 2024.

Week complete

$0

Your week, day by day

What you committed, what the river delivered, and what it cost you.

How the forecasts actually performed

n = 5 days — illustrative, not a rigorous skill claim.

Questions to reflect on and discuss with the group

  1. You held the reservoir elevation within the FERC band on –. After playing the game and seeing the forecast metrics, how would you have changed your strategy?
  2. What parts of this game were easy and hard? What was most surprising to you?