Our team has been working to support forecasts of both river flow and water level on the Mississippi months ahead, which has taken us into some interesting forecasting territory.
A river built to test a model
The Mighty Mississippi is a great river to learn from: its basin drains roughly 41% of the continental United States, and conditions at any given point reflect a huge upstream area, along with the effects of tributaries, weather, basin conditions, and river management. There's a lot for the model to account for.
Getting the routing right
One of the biggest technical challenges was getting the routing right. Phil Butcher, Software Engineer, explains why small errors can become much more significant downstream in a basin this large.
Phil Butcher, Software Engineer, explains why small routing errors compound downstream in a basin this large.
From flow to water level
Flow is only part of the picture. What matters operationally is how that flow translates into water level — and that's especially true for shipping, where changing river levels directly affect how much cargo can be carried safely in certain areas. The Mississippi's low-water conditions in 2022 made those impacts especially visible, disrupting barge traffic, increasing shipping costs, and affecting supply chains throughout the region. More advance notice of low-water conditions can create more time to adjust loading, scheduling, fleet configuration, and other logistics decisions that affect both efficiency and cost.
What we're seeing so far
Based on our analysis so far, HydroForecast is providing early signals of both rising and falling river conditions weeks ahead, with shorter-term forecasts becoming more precise as an event gets closer. But there's still plenty to learn about water level forecasting on a system as large and managed as the Mississippi.
We're excited to share more in the months ahead. In the meantime, if you're interested in streamflow or water level forecasts on the Mississippi or any other river, we'd love to hear from you.
